COVID-19 cases prediction using regression and novel SSM model for non-converged countries

  • Rupali Patil KJ Somaiya College of Engineering, Mumbai - 400077, India (IN)
  • Umang Patel KJ Somaiya College of Engineering, Mumbai - 400077, India (IN)
  • Tushar Sarkar KJ Somaiya College of Engineering, Mumbai - 400077, India (IN)
Keywords: COVID-19, Prediction, SSM, SARIMAX, Linear Regression

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Abstract

Anticipating the quantity of new associated or affirmed cases with novel coronavirus ailment 2019 (COVID-19) is critical in the counteraction and control of the COVID-19 flare-up. The new associated cases with COVID-19 information were gathered from 20 January 2020 to 21 July 2020. We filtered out the countries which are converging and used those for training the network. We utilized the SARIMAX, Linear regression model to anticipate new suspected COVID-19 cases for the countries which did not converge yet. We predict the curve of non-converged countries with the help of proposed Statistical SARIMAX model (SSM). We present new information investigation-based forecast results that can assist governments with planning their future activities and help clinical administrations to be more ready for what's to come. Our framework can foresee peak corona cases with an R-Squared value of 0.986 utilizing linear regression and fall of this pandemic at various levels for countries like India, US, and Brazil. We found that considering more countries for training degrades the prediction process as constraints vary from nation to nation. Thus, we expect that the outcomes referenced in this work will help individuals to better understand the possibilities of this pandemic.



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Received 2020-07-31
Accepted 2020-12-02
Published 2021-02-16
Published
2021-02-16
Section
Articles
How to Cite
[1]
R. Patil, U. Patel, and T. Sarkar, “COVID-19 cases prediction using regression and novel SSM model for non-converged countries”, J. Appl. Sci. Eng. Technol. Educ., vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 74-81, Feb. 2021.