Migration Pattern As Threshold Parameter In The Propagation of The Covid-19 Epidemic Using An Actor-Based Model for SI-Social Graph

  • Arnold Adimabua Ojugo Federal University of Petroleum Resources Effurun (NG)
  • Rume Elizabeth Yoro Delta State Polytechnic, Ogwashi-Uku, Delta State, Nigeria (NG)
Keywords: Epidemic, Agent-Based Modelling, Migration, Mobility Pattern, Threshold, Social Graph, Nigeria

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Abstract

Despite the benefits inherent with social interactions, the case of epidemics cum pandemic outbreaks especially the case of the novel corona virus (covid-19) alongside its set protocols employed to contain the spread therein - has continually left the world puzzled as the disease itself has come to stay. The nature of its rapid propagation on exposure alongside its migration spread pattern of this contagion (with retrospect of other epidemics) on daily basis, has also left experts rethinking the set protocols. Our study involved modelling the covid-19 contagion on a social graph, so as to ascertain if its propagation using migration pattern as a threshold parameter can be minimized via the employment of set protocols. We also employed a design that sought to block or minimize targeted spread of the contagion with the introduction of seedset node(s) using the susceptible-infect framework on a time-varying social graph. Study results showed that migration or mobility pattern has become an imperative factors that must be added when modelling the propagation of contagion or epidemics.



Author Biographies

Arnold Adimabua Ojugo, Federal University of Petroleum Resources Effurun

Arnold Adimabua Ojugo received BSc Computer Science from the Imo State University Owerri in 2000, MSc in Computer Science from the Nnamdi Azikiwe University Awka in 2005, and PhD in Computer Science from the Ebonyi State University Abakiliki in 2013. He currently lectures with the Department of Computer Science at the Federal University of Petroleum Resources Effurun, Delta State, Nigeria. His research interests: Intelligent Systems Performance, Machine Learning, CyberSecurity, IoT, and Graphs. He is also an Editor with the Progress for Intelligent Computation and Application, SceincePG etc. He is a member of: The Nigerian Computer Society, Computer Professionals of Nigeria and The International Association of Engineers. He is married to Prisca Ojugo with five children: Gregory, Easterbell, Eric, Elena and Elizabeth.

Rume Elizabeth Yoro, Delta State Polytechnic, Ogwashi-Uku, Delta State, Nigeria

Rume Elizabeth Yoro received her BSc in Computer Science from the University of Benin Edo State in 2000, MSc in Computer Science from both Benson Idahosa University and the University of Benin respectively in 2009 and 2013. She currently lectures with the Department of Computer, Delta State Polytechnic Ogwashi-Uku Nigeria. Her research interests: Network Management, Computer Forensics/IoT and Machine Learning. She is a member of: Computer Professionals of Nigeria, Nigerian Computer Society, Computer Forensics Institute of Nigeria and Nigeria Women in Information Technolgy the International Association of Engineers. She is married to Fred Yoro with five children.

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Published
2021-03-11
Section
Articles
How to Cite
Ojugo, A. A., & Yoro, R. E. (2021). Migration Pattern As Threshold Parameter In The Propagation of The Covid-19 Epidemic Using An Actor-Based Model for SI-Social Graph. JINAV: Journal of Information and Visualization, 2(2), 93-105. https://doi.org/10.35877/454RI.jinav379