Determinants of the Unemployment Rate in Bali during the COVID-19 Pandemic in 2020
https://doi.org/10.35877/454RI.daengku3711
Keywords:
Economic growth, open unemployment, COVID-19, life expectancy, local government
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Abstract
Unemployment is a social problem that hinders economic growth, including in Bali Province. A high unemployment rate has implications for low-income regions. This study aims to analyze the determinants that affect Bali's unemployment rate via projected population indicators, average length of schooling, and life expectancy. The quantitative method was used to examine secondary data from the Central Statistics Agency. The data were analyzed via multiple linear regression. The results show that during the COVID-19 pandemic, the increase in population projections, average length of schooling, and life expectancy directly affected the unemployment rate, with an effect size of 89.3%. Furthermore, simultaneous testing revealed an impact between these three indicators and the unemployment rate in Bali during 2020, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, with a probability of 0.000. In contrast to the partial results, we found that the unemployment rate was affected only by an increase in the projected population. In contrast, the average length of schooling and life expectancy did not have a direct influence. Thus, the unemployment rate in Bali can be lowered via relevant indicators that local governments and policymakers can evaluate. The synergy of other indicators must be applied to further identify determinants.
References
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Gibson, J., & Olivia, S. (2020). Direct and indirect effects of COVID-19 on life expectancy and poverty in Indonesia. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, 56(3), 325–344. https://doi.org/10.1080/00074918.2020.1847244
Hilmi, Marumu, Moh. N. H. D., Ramlawati, & Peuru, C. D. (2022). The effect of population and unemployment on the poverty rate in Tolitoli district. Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi Pembangunan, 1(1), 20–27.
Husila, S. (2019). Analisis pengaruh inflasi, rata-rata lama sekolah, pertumbuhan ekonomi terhadap pengangguran di Provinsi Sulawesi Selatan. Universitas Negeri Makassar.
Indayani, S., & Hartono, B. (2020). Analysis of unemployment and economic growth as a result of the covid-19 pandemic. Jurnal Perspektif, 18(2), 201–208.
Kim, A. T., Kim, C., Tuttle, S. E., & Zhang, Y. (2021). COVID-19 and the decline in Asian American employment. Research in Social Stratification and Mobility, 71, 100563. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rssm.2020.100563
Kristanto, E., Daerobi, A., & Samudro, B. R. (2019). Indonesian life expectancy: role of health infrastructure and socioeconomic status. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 8(2), 159–178. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v8i1.9579
Mertha Adnyana, I. M. D., Azhari, F. S. S., & Sudaryati, N. L. G. (2022). Prevalence of dengue hemorrhagic fever in Bali from 2015 to 2020 and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Jurnal Berkala Epidemiologi, 10(2), 169–178. https://doi.org/10.20473/jbe.V10I22022.169-178
Mertha Adnyana, I. M. D., & Sudaryati, N. L. G. (2022). The potency of green education-based blended learning in biology students at the Hindu University of Indonesia. BIO-INOVED: Jurnal Biologi-Inovasi Pendidikan, 4(1), 1–9. https://doi.org/10.20527/bino.v4i1.11047
Pasara, M. T., & Garidzirai, R. (2020). Causality effects among gross capital formation, unemployment and economic growth in South Africa. Economies, 8(2), 26. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies8020026
Pradipta, S. A., & Dewi, R. M. (2020). The effect of average years of schooling and open unemployment on poverty. Jurnal Pendidikan Ekonomi, 8(3), 109–115. https://doi.org/10.26740/jupe.v8n3.p109-115
Ramiayu, D. D. (2013). Analisis pengaruh rata-rata lama sekolah, upah minimum, dan pertumbuhan ekonomi terhadap tingkat pengangguran terbuka kabupaten/kota Jawa Timur. Fakultas Ekonomi Dan Bisnis Universitas Brawijaya, 1–16.
Saufidar. (2017). The effect of economic growth and population on the unemployment rate in East Aceh Regency. Jurnal Samudra Ekonomika, 1(1), 94–106.
Sedana, Y. I., Sri, B. M. K., Djinar, S. N., & Nyoman, S. I. A. (2019). Socioeconomic factors affecting poverty in Bali Province, Indonesia. Russian Journal of Agricultural and Socio-Economic Sciences, 90(6), 192–202.
Sengul, G., & Tasci, M. (2020). Unemployment flows, participation, and the natural rate of unemployment: Evidence from turkey. Journal of Macroeconomics, 64, 103202. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2020.103202
Shabbir, A., Kousar, S., & Zubair Alam, M. (2020). Factors affecting level of unemployment in South Asia. Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, 37(1), 1–25. https://doi.org/10.1108/JEAS-03-2019-0040
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Sparrow, R., Dartanto, T., & Hartwig, R. (2020). Indonesia under the new normal: challenges and the way ahead. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, 56(3), 269–299. https://doi.org/10.1080/00074918.2020.1854079
Statistics of Bali Province. (2021). Provinsi Bali Dalam Angka 2021. https://bali.bps.go.id/publication/2021/02/26/4ae96914ff22e9b79d8d6551/provinsi-bali-dalam-angka-2021.html
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Sukirno, S. (2006). Makro ekonomi teori pengantar, PT. Raja Grafindo, Jakarta.
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Todoro, M. P., & Smith Stephen, C. (2006). Pembangunan ekonomi, edisi kesembilan. PT Gelora Aksara Pratama. Jakarta.
Wahyuni, S. A., Ratnawati, R., Indriyani, I., & Fajri, M. (2020). Spline regression analysis to modeling the open unemployment rate in Sulawesi. Natural Science: Journal of Science and Technology, 9(2), 2–7. https://doi.org/10.22487/25411969.2020.v9.i2.15202
Adnyana, I. M. D. M. (2021). Populasi dan Sampel. In M. Darwin (Ed.), Metode Penelitian Pendekatan Kuantitatif (1st ed., pp. 103–116). CV. Media Sains Indonesia.
Ahn, H. J., & Hamilton, J. D. (2022). Measuring labor-force participation and the incidence and duration of unemployment. Review of Economic Dynamics, 44, 1–32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2021.04.005
Amir, A. (2007). Pengaruh inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi terhadap pengangguran di Indonesia. Jurnal Inflasi dan Pengangguran, 1(1), 4–9.
Ang, J. P., & Dong, F. (2022). The effects and countereffects of unemployment and stringency responses to covid-19: an international analysis using simultaneous equations models. Applied Economics, 54(11), 1278–1300. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2021.1975634
Bauer, A., & Weber, E. (2021). COVID-19: how much unemployment was caused by the shutdown in Germany? Applied Economics Letters, 28(12), 1053–1058. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2020.1789544
Biagi, F., & Lucifora, C. (2008). Demographic and education effects on unemployment in Europe. Labor Economics, 15(5), 1076–1101. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2007.09.006
Bianchi, F., Bianchi, G., & Song, D. (2023). The long-term impact of the COVID-19 unemployment shock on life expectancy and mortality rates. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 146, 104581. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2022.104581
Chalirafi, C., Anwar, K., & Abdy Yusuf, M. (2020). The effect of life expectancy (AHH) and consumption per capita on unemployment. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan, 11(2), 142–150. https://doi.org/10.22373/jep.v11i2.114
Couch, K. A., Fairlie, R. W., & Xu, H. (2020). Early evidence of the impacts of COVID-19 on minority unemployment. Journal of Public Economics, 192, 104287. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104287
Dahliah, D., & Nirwana Nur, A. (2021). The influence of unemployment, human development index and gross domestic product on poverty level. Golden Ratio of Social Science and Education, 1(2), 95–108. https://doi.org/10.52970/grsse.v1i2.84
Darwin, M., Mamondol, M. R., Sormin, S. A., Nurhayati, Y., Tambunan, H., Sylvia, D., Adnyana, I. M. D. M., Prasetiyo, B., Vianitati, P., & Gebang, A. A. (2021). Quantitative approach research method (T. S. Tambunan, Ed.; 1st ed.). CV Media Sains Indonesia.
Desembriarto, D. (2021). Display of the effect of economic growth and average years of schooling on the open unemployment rate in Bantul regency. Jurnal Riset Daerah, XXI, No 4(4), 4066. https://ojs.bantulkab.go.id/index.php/jrd/article/view/64/47
Dinar, M. I., & Nurfahmiyati. (2022). Factors affecting the open unemployment rate in Indonesia in 2011-2021. Bandung Conference Series: Economics Studies, 2(1), 210–217. https://doi.org/10.29313/bcses.v2i1.2481
Djaelani, P. N., & Taime, H. (2021). The effect of economic growth and population growth on the unemployment rate in Mimika Regency. Journal of Economics and Regional Science, 1(1), 54–66. https://doi.org/10.52421/jurnal-esensi.v1i1.137
Duque, A. M., Peixoto, M. V., Lima, S. V. M. A., Goes, M. A. O., Santos, A. D., Araújo, K. C. G. M., & Nunes, M. A. P. (2018). Analysis of the relationship between life expectancy and social determinants in a northeastern region of Brazil, 2010-2017. Geospatial Health, 13(2). https://doi.org/10.4081/gh.2018.702
Dwiningwarni, S., Aslichah, A., Ariyanto, A., Titin, T., & Yusuf, M. (2019). Population, unemployment and poverty: A population analysis in East Java Indonesia. Proceedings of the Proceedings of the 1st Sampoerna University-AFBE International Conference, SU-AFBE 2018, 6-7 December 2018, Jakarta Indonesia. https://doi.org/10.4108/eai.6-12-2018.2286278
Gibson, J., & Olivia, S. (2020). Direct and indirect effects of COVID-19 on life expectancy and poverty in Indonesia. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, 56(3), 325–344. https://doi.org/10.1080/00074918.2020.1847244
Hilmi, Marumu, Moh. N. H. D., Ramlawati, & Peuru, C. D. (2022). The effect of population and unemployment on the poverty rate in Tolitoli district. Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi Pembangunan, 1(1), 20–27.
Husila, S. (2019). Analisis pengaruh inflasi, rata-rata lama sekolah, pertumbuhan ekonomi terhadap pengangguran di Provinsi Sulawesi Selatan. Universitas Negeri Makassar.
Indayani, S., & Hartono, B. (2020). Analysis of unemployment and economic growth as a result of the covid-19 pandemic. Jurnal Perspektif, 18(2), 201–208.
Kim, A. T., Kim, C., Tuttle, S. E., & Zhang, Y. (2021). COVID-19 and the decline in Asian American employment. Research in Social Stratification and Mobility, 71, 100563. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rssm.2020.100563
Kristanto, E., Daerobi, A., & Samudro, B. R. (2019). Indonesian life expectancy: role of health infrastructure and socioeconomic status. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 8(2), 159–178. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v8i1.9579
Mertha Adnyana, I. M. D., Azhari, F. S. S., & Sudaryati, N. L. G. (2022). Prevalence of dengue hemorrhagic fever in Bali from 2015 to 2020 and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Jurnal Berkala Epidemiologi, 10(2), 169–178. https://doi.org/10.20473/jbe.V10I22022.169-178
Mertha Adnyana, I. M. D., & Sudaryati, N. L. G. (2022). The potency of green education-based blended learning in biology students at the Hindu University of Indonesia. BIO-INOVED: Jurnal Biologi-Inovasi Pendidikan, 4(1), 1–9. https://doi.org/10.20527/bino.v4i1.11047
Pasara, M. T., & Garidzirai, R. (2020). Causality effects among gross capital formation, unemployment and economic growth in South Africa. Economies, 8(2), 26. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies8020026
Pradipta, S. A., & Dewi, R. M. (2020). The effect of average years of schooling and open unemployment on poverty. Jurnal Pendidikan Ekonomi, 8(3), 109–115. https://doi.org/10.26740/jupe.v8n3.p109-115
Ramiayu, D. D. (2013). Analisis pengaruh rata-rata lama sekolah, upah minimum, dan pertumbuhan ekonomi terhadap tingkat pengangguran terbuka kabupaten/kota Jawa Timur. Fakultas Ekonomi Dan Bisnis Universitas Brawijaya, 1–16.
Saufidar. (2017). The effect of economic growth and population on the unemployment rate in East Aceh Regency. Jurnal Samudra Ekonomika, 1(1), 94–106.
Sedana, Y. I., Sri, B. M. K., Djinar, S. N., & Nyoman, S. I. A. (2019). Socioeconomic factors affecting poverty in Bali Province, Indonesia. Russian Journal of Agricultural and Socio-Economic Sciences, 90(6), 192–202.
Sengul, G., & Tasci, M. (2020). Unemployment flows, participation, and the natural rate of unemployment: Evidence from turkey. Journal of Macroeconomics, 64, 103202. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2020.103202
Shabbir, A., Kousar, S., & Zubair Alam, M. (2020). Factors affecting level of unemployment in South Asia. Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, 37(1), 1–25. https://doi.org/10.1108/JEAS-03-2019-0040
Smith, T. M. P. (2006). Pembangunan Ekonomi (Edisi Kesembilan). Drs. Haris Munandar, MA Dan Puji AL, SE, Pentj). Jakarta: Gelora Aksara Pratama.
Sparrow, R., Dartanto, T., & Hartwig, R. (2020). Indonesia under the new normal: challenges and the way ahead. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, 56(3), 269–299. https://doi.org/10.1080/00074918.2020.1854079
Statistics of Bali Province. (2021). Provinsi Bali Dalam Angka 2021. https://bali.bps.go.id/publication/2021/02/26/4ae96914ff22e9b79d8d6551/provinsi-bali-dalam-angka-2021.html
Sukirno, S. (1995). Pengantar teori makroekonomi edisi kedua.
Sukirno, S. (2006). Makro ekonomi teori pengantar, PT. Raja Grafindo, Jakarta.
Syaharuddin, S. (2020). Menimbang peran teknologi dan guru dalam pembelajaran di era COVID-19. Menimbang Peran teknologi dan guru dalam pembelajaran di era COVID-19. https://repo-dosen.ulm.ac.id//handle/123456789/14062
Todoro, M. P., & Smith Stephen, C. (2006). Pembangunan ekonomi, edisi kesembilan. PT Gelora Aksara Pratama. Jakarta.
Wahyuni, S. A., Ratnawati, R., Indriyani, I., & Fajri, M. (2020). Spline regression analysis to modeling the open unemployment rate in Sulawesi. Natural Science: Journal of Science and Technology, 9(2), 2–7. https://doi.org/10.22487/25411969.2020.v9.i2.15202
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2025-02-14
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How to Cite
Diputra, G. I. S., Arsha, I. M. R. M., & Adiyadnya, M. S. P. (2025). Determinants of the Unemployment Rate in Bali during the COVID-19 Pandemic in 2020. Daengku: Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences Innovation, 5(2), 202-211. https://doi.org/10.35877/454RI.daengku3711
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